When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 56 | 5% | 0% | 5.2% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 90 | 15% | 0% | 15.2% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 96 | 25% | 0% | 25.2% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 124 | 35% | 0% | 35.0% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 128 | 45% | 0% | 45.1% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 150 | 55% | 0% | 54.7% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 124 | 64% | 2% | 62.8% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 96 | 74% | 4% | 70.2% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 72 | 85% | 0% | 84.6% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 58 | 94% | 0% | 94.2% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 95 days, 2867 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 80/100, wash trading score: 20/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $6,573 in / $0 out across 31 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-01.
3100 total trades across 204 markets.
994 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 48.8% — needs improvement.
Skill: 2/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 34/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -4927.7% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.2954 RES=0.0002 UNC=0.0060.
Log loss: 0.8659 (skill: -2249.0% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
No demonstrated forecasting skill. This trader performs at or below random chance based on available data.
Confidence: F/34 [CI95: F→D, 33-35] (994 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.