VIGIL Trust Score for the AI Agent Economy
Hardyos5x
0x74ab5f0e9a82fbf9e90a640ba0085a47190ddf4c
Polymarket Trader
DANGER
High probability of further losses.
Calibration Analysis
When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 1 | 1% | 100% | 98.8% |
Calibration Error: 98.8%
Reliability (CAL)
0.9761
Lower = better calibrated
Resolution (RES)
0.0000
Higher = stronger opinions
Brier Skill Score
-290.5%
vs naive baseline
Log Loss
4.4228
Skill: -55834.1% vs naive — sensitive to rare events
Signals
✓ Well-diversified: 83 unique markets
✓ On-chain: 493-day wallet history on Polygon
✓ On-chain: human-like trading patterns
⚠ Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address
⚠ Limited resolved data (1 resolved) despite 171 trades across 83 markets — older positions may have been purged from API
On-Chain Verification (Polygon)
Protocols: USDC, USDC.e (Bridged)
PnL verified: $54.48 gap between API and on-chain USDC
✓ Wallet age: 493 days (mature)
✓ Active on-chain: 415 txs
✓ Human-like transaction patterns
⚠ Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction
Reasoning
On-chain verification: wallet age 493 days, 415 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
171 total trades across 83 markets.
1 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Insufficient resolved bets for calibration analysis.
Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 0/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
What Does F/24 Mean?
No demonstrated forecasting skill. This trader performs at or below random chance based on available data.
Confidence: F/24 ± 25 (very_low confidence, 1 resolved bets). Low confidence — take this score with a grain of salt until more markets resolve.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.