When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 20 | 4% | 15% | 10.7% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 15 | 15% | 27% | 12.1% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 12 | 24% | 8% | 16.2% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 11 | 36% | 9% | 27.3% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 23 | 45% | 4% | 40.7% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 44 | 55% | 5% | 50.7% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 26 | 64% | 0% | 64.2% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 19 | 75% | 0% | 75.2% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 18 | 86% | 0% | 85.8% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 19 | 96% | 0% | 96.0% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 2 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade D. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.
3100 total trades across 222 markets.
207 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 50.8% — needs improvement.
Skill: 1/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 37/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -601.9% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.3329 RES=0.0055 UNC=0.0546.
Log loss: 1.1365 (skill: -413.4% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
Timeliness: avg entry 0.9 days before resolution, 0% early mover.
Below average. The data shows poor calibration, thin evidence, or both. When this trader expresses high confidence, events don't happen at the rate they imply.
Confidence: D/43 [CI95: D→D, 41-45] (207 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.