VIGIL Trust Score for the AI Agent Economy
Adis1RecenyUdatny
0x91646584516c035e7cd1175b78f87ecbce54798e
Polymarket Trader
RISKY
Below-average risk profile. Proceed with caution.
D
35 / 100
VIGIL Dimensions
Calibration
71
Profitability
40
Consistency
0
Discipline
75
Sample Size
20
Live Edge
0
Raw Metrics
Total PnL
$-4.72
Win Rate
0%
Resolved Bets
8
Total Trades
2000
Volume
$35746
Markets
1839
Brier Score
0.127
Open Positions
2
Brier Skill
49.2%
Log Loss
0.404
Calibration Analysis

When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.

BucketBetsExpectedActualError
0.00-0.1014%0%4.0%
0.10-0.20217%0%17.5%
0.20-0.30225%0%24.5%
0.40-0.50149%0%49.1%
0.50-0.60254%0%54.2%
Calibration Error: 30.7%
Reliability (CAL)
0.1265
Lower = better calibrated
Resolution (RES)
0.0000
Higher = stronger opinions
Brier Skill Score
49.2%
vs naive baseline
Log Loss
0.4038
Skill: -5007.0% vs naive — sensitive to rare events
Timeliness
3/100
Avg 3d before resolution, 0% early mover
Skill & Variance Analysis

Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).

23
Skill Score
11
Variance
Signals
✓ Well-diversified: 1839 unique markets
✓ On-chain: human-like trading patterns
⚠ Limited resolved data (8 resolved) despite 2000 trades across 1839 markets — older positions may have been purged from API
On-Chain Verification (Polygon)
Wallet Age
108d
Txns on Base
2000
Counterparties
0
USDC In
$6865
USDC Out
$6860
Provenance
C (58)
Protocols: USDC.e (Bridged)
PnL verified: $9.85 gap between API and on-chain USDC
✓ Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs
✓ Significant USDC flow: $13,724
✓ Human-like transaction patterns
⚠ Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses
⚠ No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers
Reasoning

On-chain verification: wallet age 108 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.

2000 total trades across 1839 markets.

8 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.

Insufficient resolved bets for calibration analysis.

Skill: 23/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 11/100 (higher = more volatile returns).

What Does D/35 Mean?

Below average. The data shows poor calibration, thin evidence, or both. When this trader expresses high confidence, events don't happen at the rate they imply.

Confidence: D/35 ± 25 (very_low confidence, 8 resolved bets). Low confidence — take this score with a grain of salt until more markets resolve.

Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.

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Not financial advice. VIGIL Trust Score is informational only.
Scored: 2026-04-20T00:36:23.425Z | Source: polymarket-v1
JSON: /v1/polymarket/... | /polymarket