VIGIL: yarrOsfec2 scored F/10

yarrOsfec2

0x941e9756c3588cdc806d9e1005528a5cdcfa1fbf

Polymarket Trader

DANGER

High probability of further losses.

F

10 / 100

VIGIL Dimensions

Calibration

42

Profitability

1

Consistency

0

Discipline

75

Sample Size

100

Live Edge

7

Raw Metrics

Total PnL

$-6606.84

Win Rate

0%

Resolved Bets

989

Total Trades

3100

Volume

$33613

Markets

1801

Brier Score

0.2631

Open Positions

2

Brier Skill

-5.3%

Log Loss

1.097

Calibration Analysis

When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.

Bucket	Bets	Expected	Actual	Error
0.00-0.10	516	3%	0%	2.8%
0.10-0.20	81	14%	0%	13.6%
0.20-0.30	39	24%	0%	24.4%
0.30-0.40	36	34%	0%	33.5%
0.40-0.50	27	45%	0%	45.0%
0.50-0.60	17	54%	0%	54.2%
0.60-0.70	18	65%	0%	65.4%
0.70-0.80	17	75%	0%	74.9%
0.80-0.90	23	85%	0%	84.8%
0.90-1.00	215	98%	0%	98.2%

Calibration Error: 32.7%

Reliability (CAL)

0.2626

Lower = better calibrated

Resolution (RES)

0.0000

Higher = stronger opinions

Brier Skill Score

-5.3%

vs naive baseline

Log Loss

1.0973

Skill: -13777.5% vs naive — sensitive to rare events

Skill & Variance Analysis

Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).

21

Skill Score

19

Variance

Signals

✓ Well-diversified: 1801 unique markets

✓ On-chain: 184-day wallet history on Polygon

✓ On-chain: human-like trading patterns

✓ On-chain: diverse counterparty network

✓ On-chain: $10,224 total USDC.e received from Polymarket contracts across 79 tx (Polygon)

⚠ Overconfidence bias: 0.327

⚠ Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions

⚠ Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected

⚠ Penny-lottery strategy: 52% of bets at sub-$0.10 — score penalized by 15 pts

⚠ Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address

⚠ Net loss: -$6607 total PnL

⚠ Low win rate: 0%

⚠ PnL divergence: $8288 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows

On-Chain Verification (Polygon)

Wallet Age

184d

Txns on Base

2934

Counterparties

19

USDC In

$22055

USDC Out

$20374

Provenance

B (73)

Protocols: USDC.e (Bridged)

PnL divergence: $8287.75 gap between API and on-chain USDC

✓ Wallet age: 184 days

✓ Heavy on-chain activity: 2934 txs

✓ Significant USDC flow: $42,429

✓ Human-like transaction patterns

✓ Diverse trading network: 19 counterparties

⚠ Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction

Reasoning

On-chain verification: wallet age 184 days, 2934 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.

Polymarket on-chain coverage: $10,224 in / $0 out across 79 withdrawal tx since 2025-11-17.

3100 total trades across 1801 markets.

989 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.

Calibration error: 32.7% — needs improvement.

Skill: 21/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 19/100 (higher = more volatile returns).

Brier Skill Score: -5.3% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).

Brier decomposition: REL=0.2626 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.

Log loss: 1.0973 (skill: -13777.5% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.

What Does F/10 Mean?

No demonstrated forecasting skill. This trader performs at or below random chance based on available data.

Confidence: F/10 [CI95: F→F, 9-11] (989 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.

Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.

Share This Score

POST ON X SCORE CARD