When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 252 | 1% | 0% | 1.0% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 14 | 18% | 0% | 18.1% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 38 | 25% | 0% | 24.8% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 50 | 35% | 0% | 34.8% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 295 | 45% | 0% | 44.9% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 75 | 53% | 0% | 52.5% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 9 | 63% | 0% | 63.3% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 4 | 76% | 0% | 75.5% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 2 | 86% | 0% | 85.7% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 258 | 99% | 0% | 98.9% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 90 days, 3000 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 10/100, wash trading score: 50/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $244 in / $0 out across 48 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-01.
3100 total trades across 1391 markets.
997 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 47.1% — needs improvement.
Skill: 4/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 18/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -40.0% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.3496 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 1.4684 (skill: -18470.3% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
Timeliness: avg entry 1.2 days before resolution, 0% early mover.
No demonstrated forecasting skill. This trader performs at or below random chance based on available data.
Confidence: F/34 [CI95: F→D, 33-35] (997 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.