VIGIL: pi4e scored C/51

pi4e

0x9d2cc8d289bc291b2f3a719c1be3413d67574183

Polymarket Trader

DEVELOPING

Mixed signals. More data needed.

C

51 / 100

VIGIL Dimensions

Calibration

81

Profitability

39

Consistency

0

Discipline

50

Sample Size

100

Live Edge

40

Raw Metrics

Total PnL

$-48

Win Rate

0%

Resolved Bets

349

Total Trades

3100

Volume

$17586

Markets

349

Brier Score

0.0504

Open Positions

0

Brier Skill

79.8%

Log Loss

0.242

Calibration Analysis

When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.

Bucket	Bets	Expected	Actual	Error
0.00-0.10	35	6%	0%	6.2%
0.10-0.20	102	16%	0%	15.9%
0.20-0.30	177	25%	0%	25.0%
0.30-0.40	35	32%	0%	31.7%

Calibration Error: 21.1%

Reliability (CAL)

0.0496

Lower = better calibrated

Resolution (RES)

0.0000

Higher = stronger opinions

Brier Skill Score

79.8%

vs naive baseline

Log Loss

0.2420

Skill: -2960.8% vs naive — sensitive to rare events

Timeliness

1/100

Avg 1d before resolution, 0% early mover

Skill & Variance Analysis

Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).

35

Skill Score

39

Variance

Signals

✓ Strong Brier score: 0.0504

✓ Brier Skill Score: 79.8% better than naive baseline

✓ Well-diversified: 349 unique markets

✓ On-chain: human-like trading patterns

⚠ Overconfidence bias: 0.211

⚠ Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions

⚠ Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected

⚠ Low win rate: 0%

⚠ Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market

On-Chain Verification (Polygon)

Wallet Age

70d

Txns on Base

2000

Counterparties

0

USDC In

$3204

USDC Out

$3204

Provenance

C (48)

Protocols: USDC.e (Bridged)

PnL verified: $48 gap between API and on-chain USDC

✓ Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs

✓ Human-like transaction patterns

⚠ Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses

⚠ No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers

Reasoning

On-chain verification: wallet age 70 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.

Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.

3100 total trades across 349 markets.

349 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.

Calibration error: 21.1% — needs improvement.

Skill: 35/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 39/100 (higher = more volatile returns).

Brier Skill Score: 79.8% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).

Brier decomposition: REL=0.0496 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.

Log loss: 0.2420 (skill: -2960.8% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.

Timeliness: avg entry 1.1 days before resolution, 0% early mover.

What Does C/51 Mean?

This trader shows some skill signal, but not enough to clearly distinguish from luck. More data needed.

Confidence: C/51 [CI95: C→C, 51-51] (349 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.

Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.

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