When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 276 | 3% | 67% | 63.9% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 38 | 13% | 16% | 2.4% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 16 | 23% | 50% | 27.1% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 8 | 32% | 25% | 7.4% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 4 | 43% | 0% | 43.2% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 6 | 56% | 33% | 22.2% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 4 | 63% | 0% | 63.0% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 16 | 85% | 38% | 47.8% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 56 | 97% | 71% | 25.7% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 172 days, 2991 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 60/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.
3100 total trades across 181 markets.
424 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 49.5% — needs improvement.
Skill: 6/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 100/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -109.8% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.2926 RES=0.0343 UNC=0.2428.
Log loss: 2.1472 (skill: -216.4% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
No demonstrated forecasting skill. This trader performs at or below random chance based on available data.
Confidence: F/17 [CI95: F→F, 15-19] (424 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.