When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 44 | 3% | 0% | 3.2% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 4 | 16% | 0% | 15.8% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 12 | 57% | 0% | 57.1% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 148 | 67% | 0% | 66.5% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 460 | 75% | 0% | 75.3% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 194 | 84% | 0% | 84.1% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 138 | 95% | 0% | 95.2% |
On-chain verification: wallet age 151 days, 2277 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 10/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $8,186 in / $0 out across 163 withdrawal tx since 2026-01-19.
3100 total trades across 726 markets.
1000 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 74.8% — needs improvement.
Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 8/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -137.3% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.5925 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 1.6160 (skill: -20336.6% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
No demonstrated forecasting skill. This trader performs at or below random chance based on available data.
Confidence: F/33 [CI95: F→F, 32-34] (1000 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.