When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 5 | 5% | 0% | 5.0% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 6 | 16% | 0% | 15.7% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 3 | 25% | 0% | 25.0% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 6 | 36% | 0% | 35.5% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 3 | 45% | 0% | 44.5% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 5 | 55% | 0% | 54.8% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 5 | 65% | 0% | 65.2% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 2 | 75% | 0% | 74.9% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 1 | 86% | 0% | 86.0% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 45 days, 2905 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 10/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
1518 total trades across 469 markets.
36 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 38.2% — needs improvement.
Skill: 14/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 16/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: 19.8% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.1997 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 0.5716 (skill: -7128.5% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
Timeliness: avg entry 4.8 days before resolution, 0% early mover.
Below average. The data shows poor calibration, thin evidence, or both. When this trader expresses high confidence, events don't happen at the rate they imply.
Confidence: D/47 ± 15 (low confidence, 36 resolved bets). Low confidence — take this score with a grain of salt until more markets resolve.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.