VIGIL Trust Score for the AI Agent Economy
Trader 0xa8eef0...
0xa8eef07d38b0fc51232e33e6914929fc253b3c21
Polymarket Trader
DANGER
High probability of further losses.
Calibration Analysis
When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 104 | 3% | 98% | 95.1% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 22 | 14% | 100% | 85.6% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 2 | 24% | 100% | 75.8% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 2 | 82% | 100% | 18.0% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 10 | 94% | 100% | 6.4% |
Calibration Error: 85.9%
Reliability (CAL)
0.7957
Lower = better calibrated
Resolution (RES)
0.0001
Higher = stronger opinions
Brier Skill Score
-999.0%
vs naive baseline
Log Loss
2.9823
Skill: -3883.1% vs naive — sensitive to rare events
Signals
✓ Conservative (underconfident) bias
✓ Strong win rate: 99%
✓ Well-diversified: 476 unique markets
✓ On-chain: multi-protocol user (USDC, USDC.e (Bridged), Polymarket Neg Risk Adapter)
⚠ Weak Brier score: 0.8101
⚠ High luck component: 92/100 — returns may not persist
⚠ Brier Skill Score: -5652.6% — performing worse than naive baseline
⚠ Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions
⚠ Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected
⚠ Penny-lottery strategy: 74% of bets at sub-$0.10 — score penalized by 15 pts
⚠ Net loss: -$306 total PnL
⚠ On-chain: bot-like trading patterns detected (bot score: 80)
On-Chain Verification (Polygon)
Protocols: USDC, USDC.e (Bridged), Polymarket Neg Risk Adapter
PnL verified: $398.74 gap between API and on-chain USDC
✓ Heavy on-chain activity: 1686 txs
✓ Significant USDC flow: $40,366
⚠ Young wallet: only 13 days old
⚠ Bot-like behavior detected: 285 burst txs, median interval 8s
⚠ Counterparty concentration: 91% with top address
Reasoning
On-chain verification: wallet age 13 days, 1686 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 80/100, wash trading score: 50/100.
478 total trades across 476 markets.
140 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 85.9% — needs improvement.
Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 92/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -5652.6% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.7957 RES=0.0001 UNC=0.0141.
Log loss: 2.9823 (skill: -3883.1% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
What Does F/32 Mean?
No demonstrated forecasting skill. This trader performs at or below random chance based on available data.
Confidence: F/32 ± 8 (medium confidence, 140 resolved bets). Moderate confidence — score may shift as more markets resolve.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.