When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 4 | 4% | 50% | 45.7% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 3 | 17% | 100% | 83.3% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 2 | 23% | 100% | 76.8% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 4 | 35% | 25% | 9.8% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 3 | 44% | 0% | 44.0% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 3 | 53% | 0% | 53.0% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 4 | 64% | 50% | 14.4% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 1 | 73% | 0% | 73.0% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 4 | 84% | 50% | 34.0% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 7 | 95% | 71% | 23.7% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 41 days, 2358 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
1781 total trades across 1006 markets.
35 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 38.6% — needs improvement.
Skill: 30/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 43/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -40.0% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.2009 RES=0.1018 UNC=0.2498.
Log loss: 1.0326 (skill: -49.1% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
Timeliness: avg entry 26.4 days before resolution, 83% early mover.
Below average. The data shows poor calibration, thin evidence, or both. When this trader expresses high confidence, events don't happen at the rate they imply.
Confidence: D/40 ± 15 (low confidence, 35 resolved bets). Low confidence — take this score with a grain of salt until more markets resolve.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.