When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 1 | 7% | 0% | 7.0% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 2 | 16% | 0% | 16.2% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 24 | 26% | 0% | 25.9% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 14 | 35% | 0% | 35.1% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 4 | 46% | 0% | 46.0% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 2 | 55% | 0% | 54.5% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 53 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade D. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.
3100 total trades across 49 markets.
47 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 30.7% — needs improvement.
Skill: 23/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 49/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: 58.7% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.1027 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 0.3772 (skill: -4670.4% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
This trader shows some skill signal, but not enough to clearly distinguish from luck. More data needed.
Confidence: C/51 [CI95: C→C, 50-52] (47 resolved bets). Low confidence — take this score with a grain of salt until more markets resolve.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.