When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 902 | 5% | 0% | 5.3% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 76 | 12% | 0% | 11.5% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 2 | 20% | 0% | 20.0% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 20 | 33% | 0% | 33.3% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 9 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade D. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.
3100 total trades across 777 markets.
1000 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 6.4% — excellent.
Skill: 52/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 32/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: 97.4% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.0059 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 0.0676 (skill: -754.5% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
This trader shows some skill signal, but not enough to clearly distinguish from luck. More data needed.
Confidence: C/62 [CI95: C→C, 62-62] (1000 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.