When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 74 | 5% | 0% | 4.7% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 108 | 15% | 0% | 15.4% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 90 | 25% | 0% | 25.1% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 68 | 36% | 0% | 35.7% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 36 | 43% | 0% | 42.8% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 18 | 55% | 0% | 55.2% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 86 | 64% | 0% | 64.0% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 96 | 75% | 0% | 75.4% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 100 | 85% | 0% | 84.5% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 78 | 95% | 0% | 94.9% |
On-chain verification: wallet age 89 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.
3100 total trades across 531 markets.
754 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 50.2% — needs improvement.
Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 18/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -38.6% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.3457 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 1.0215 (skill: -12818.6% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
No demonstrated forecasting skill. This trader performs at or below random chance based on available data.
Confidence: F/28 [CI95: F→F, 27-29] (754 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.