When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 180 | 5% | 0% | 4.7% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 148 | 14% | 0% | 14.4% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 54 | 26% | 0% | 26.0% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 38 | 34% | 0% | 34.4% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 32 | 44% | 0% | 44.3% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 42 | 56% | 0% | 55.5% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 48 | 66% | 0% | 65.7% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 92 | 75% | 0% | 75.2% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 164 | 86% | 0% | 85.9% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 202 | 95% | 0% | 95.0% |
On-chain verification: wallet age 93 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $2,209 in / $0 out across 112 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-05.
3100 total trades across 875 markets.
1000 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 52.8% — needs improvement.
Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 29/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -63.0% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.4069 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 1.2628 (skill: -15870.6% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
No demonstrated forecasting skill. This trader performs at or below random chance based on available data.
Confidence: F/34 [CI95: F→D, 33-35] (1000 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.