When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 3 | 4% | 0% | 3.7% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 4 | 15% | 0% | 15.5% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 13 | 25% | 0% | 25.4% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 36 | 35% | 0% | 34.6% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 53 | 45% | 0% | 45.5% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 71 | 55% | 0% | 55.4% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 103 | 65% | 0% | 65.1% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 82 | 75% | 0% | 74.8% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 56 | 84% | 0% | 84.2% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 56 | 94% | 0% | 94.5% |
On-chain verification: wallet age 25 days, 2406 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 50/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $4,369 in / $0 out across 182 withdrawal tx since 2026-03-29.
3100 total trades across 926 markets.
477 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 64.7% — needs improvement.
Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 19/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -82.5% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.4554 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 1.2783 (skill: -16065.9% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
Timeliness: avg entry 5.5 days before resolution, 0% early mover.
Below average. The data shows poor calibration, thin evidence, or both. When this trader expresses high confidence, events don't happen at the rate they imply.
Confidence: D/35 [CI95: F→D, 34-36] (477 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.