VIGIL: vnpspa55 scored D/36

vnpspa55

0xbf8d2192f319af779e87899b847017096bc7c93a

Polymarket Trader

RISKY

Below-average risk profile. Proceed with caution.

D

36 / 100

VIGIL Dimensions

Calibration

26

Profitability

0

Consistency

78

Discipline

50

Sample Size

100

Live Edge

40

Raw Metrics

Total PnL

$-13980.77

Win Rate

0%

Resolved Bets

1000

Total Trades

3100

Volume

$11916

Markets

132

Brier Score

0.2909

Open Positions

0

Brier Skill

-16.4%

Log Loss

0.823

Calibration Analysis

When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.

Bucket	Bets	Expected	Actual	Error
0.00-0.10	40	6%	0%	5.8%
0.10-0.20	82	16%	0%	16.0%
0.20-0.30	118	26%	0%	25.6%
0.30-0.40	138	35%	0%	35.2%
0.40-0.50	136	45%	0%	45.2%
0.50-0.60	152	54%	0%	54.5%
0.60-0.70	124	65%	0%	64.8%
0.70-0.80	108	75%	0%	74.6%
0.80-0.90	74	84%	0%	84.2%
0.90-1.00	28	95%	0%	95.5%

Calibration Error: 48.8%

Reliability (CAL)

0.2901

Lower = better calibrated

Resolution (RES)

0.0000

Higher = stronger opinions

Brier Skill Score

-16.4%

vs naive baseline

Log Loss

0.8229

Skill: -10307.1% vs naive — sensitive to rare events

Skill & Variance Analysis

Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).

1

Skill Score

17

Variance

Signals

✓ Well-diversified: 132 unique markets

✓ On-chain: human-like trading patterns

✓ On-chain: $11,550 total USDC.e received from Polymarket contracts across 13 tx (Polygon)

⚠ Overconfidence bias: 0.488

⚠ Brier Skill Score: -16.4% — performing worse than naive baseline

⚠ Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions

⚠ Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected

⚠ Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address

⚠ Net loss: -$13981 total PnL

⚠ Low win rate: 0%

⚠ Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market

⚠ PnL divergence: $16658 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows

⚠ On-chain: wash trading signal — 100% of txs with single counterparty

On-Chain Verification (Polygon)

Wallet Age

80d

Txns on Base

3000

Counterparties

4

USDC In

$17750

USDC Out

$15072

Provenance

C (58)

Protocols: USDC.e (Bridged)

PnL divergence: $16658.4 gap between API and on-chain USDC

✓ Heavy on-chain activity: 3000 txs

✓ Significant USDC flow: $32,822

✓ Human-like transaction patterns

⚠ Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction

⚠ Wash trading signal: 100% of txs with single counterparty

Reasoning

On-chain verification: wallet age 80 days, 3000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 80/100.

Polymarket on-chain coverage: $11,550 in / $0 out across 13 withdrawal tx since 2026-03-27.

3100 total trades across 132 markets.

1000 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.

Calibration error: 48.8% — needs improvement.

Skill: 1/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 17/100 (higher = more volatile returns).

Brier Skill Score: -16.4% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).

Brier decomposition: REL=0.2901 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.

Log loss: 0.8229 (skill: -10307.1% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.

What Does D/36 Mean?

Below average. The data shows poor calibration, thin evidence, or both. When this trader expresses high confidence, events don't happen at the rate they imply.

Confidence: D/36 [CI95: D→D, 35-37] (1000 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.

Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.

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