VIGIL: PollyForge scored C/57

PollyForge

0xc5403a67309b34f5936e429568bccf02726df00d

Polymarket Trader

DEVELOPING

Mixed signals. More data needed.

C

57 / 100

VIGIL Dimensions

Calibration

99

Profitability

0

Consistency

59

Discipline

50

Sample Size

100

Live Edge

40

Raw Metrics

Total PnL

$-10768.87

Win Rate

0%

Resolved Bets

1000

Total Trades

2000

Volume

$9332

Markets

947

Brier Score

0.0002

Open Positions

0

Brier Skill

99.9%

Log Loss

0.013

Calibration Analysis

When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.

Bucket	Bets	Expected	Actual	Error
0.00-0.10	1000	1%	0%	1.3%

Calibration Error: 1.3%

Reliability (CAL)

0.0002

Lower = better calibrated

Resolution (RES)

0.0000

Higher = stronger opinions

Brier Skill Score

99.9%

vs naive baseline

Log Loss

0.0129

Skill: -62.7% vs naive — sensitive to rare events

Skill & Variance Analysis

Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).

59

Skill Score

20

Variance

Signals

✓ Strong Brier score: 0.0002

✓ Brier Skill Score: 99.9% better than naive baseline

✓ Well-diversified: 947 unique markets

✓ On-chain: human-like trading patterns

⚠ Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions

⚠ Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected

⚠ Net loss: -$10769 total PnL

⚠ Low win rate: 0%

⚠ Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market

⚠ PnL divergence: $10817 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows

On-Chain Verification (Polygon)

Wallet Age

57d

Txns on Base

2000

Counterparties

0

USDC In

$6653

USDC Out

$6605

Provenance

C (53)

Protocols: USDC.e (Bridged)

PnL divergence: $10817.42 gap between API and on-chain USDC

✓ Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs

✓ Significant USDC flow: $13,258

✓ Human-like transaction patterns

⚠ Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses

⚠ No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers

Reasoning

On-chain verification: wallet age 57 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.

2000 total trades across 947 markets.

1000 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.

Calibration error: 1.3% — excellent.

Skill: 59/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 20/100 (higher = more volatile returns).

Brier Skill Score: 99.9% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).

Brier decomposition: REL=0.0002 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.

Log loss: 0.0129 (skill: -62.7% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.

What Does C/57 Mean?

This trader shows some skill signal, but not enough to clearly distinguish from luck. More data needed.

Confidence: C/57 ± 3 (high confidence, 1000 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.

Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.

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