VIGIL: 0x33d33 scored C/53

0x33d33

0xc547326c577e21102f85e36b06cdb70d05e87b30

Polymarket Trader

DEVELOPING

Mixed signals. More data needed.

C

53 / 100

VIGIL Dimensions

Calibration

37

Profitability

40

Consistency

73

Discipline

75

Sample Size

100

Live Edge

38

Raw Metrics

Total PnL

$5.82

Win Rate

0%

Resolved Bets

499

Total Trades

3100

Volume

$135869

Markets

840

Brier Score

0.2388

Open Positions

2

Brier Skill

4.5%

Log Loss

0.672

Calibration Analysis

When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.

Bucket	Bets	Expected	Actual	Error
0.00-0.10	2	8%	0%	8.5%
0.10-0.20	5	19%	0%	19.2%
0.20-0.30	23	26%	0%	25.6%
0.30-0.40	74	36%	0%	36.3%
0.40-0.50	217	45%	0%	45.4%
0.50-0.60	114	54%	0%	53.9%
0.60-0.70	48	65%	0%	64.5%
0.70-0.80	11	74%	0%	74.1%
0.80-0.90	5	83%	0%	83.5%

Calibration Error: 47.5%

Reliability (CAL)

0.2380

Lower = better calibrated

Resolution (RES)

0.0000

Higher = stronger opinions

Brier Skill Score

4.5%

vs naive baseline

Log Loss

0.6722

Skill: -8400.5% vs naive — sensitive to rare events

Timeliness

1/100

Avg 1d before resolution, 0% early mover

Skill & Variance Analysis

Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).

3

Skill Score

14

Variance

Signals

✓ Proven track record bonus: +5 pts (499 resolved bets, positive BSS, profitable)

✓ Net profitable: +$6 total PnL

✓ Well-diversified: 840 unique markets

✓ On-chain: human-like trading patterns

✓ On-chain: diverse counterparty network

✓ On-chain: $16,867 total USDC.e received from Polymarket contracts across 190 tx (Polygon)

⚠ Overconfidence bias: 0.475

⚠ Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions

⚠ Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected

⚠ Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address

⚠ Low win rate: 0%

On-Chain Verification (Polygon)

Wallet Age

84d

Txns on Base

2988

Counterparties

118

USDC In

$18069

USDC Out

$17839

Provenance

B (73)

Protocols: USDC.e (Bridged)

PnL verified: $224.18 gap between API and on-chain USDC

✓ Heavy on-chain activity: 2988 txs

✓ Diverse counterparties: 118 unique addresses

✓ Significant USDC flow: $35,908

✓ Human-like transaction patterns

✓ Diverse trading network: 118 counterparties

⚠ Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction

Reasoning

On-chain verification: wallet age 84 days, 2988 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.

Polymarket on-chain coverage: $16,867 in / $0 out across 190 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-15.

3100 total trades across 840 markets.

499 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.

Calibration error: 47.5% — needs improvement.

Skill: 3/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 14/100 (higher = more volatile returns).

Brier Skill Score: 4.5% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).

Brier decomposition: REL=0.2380 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.

Log loss: 0.6722 (skill: -8400.5% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.

Timeliness: avg entry 0.9 days before resolution, 0% early mover.

What Does C/53 Mean?

This trader shows some skill signal, but not enough to clearly distinguish from luck. More data needed.

Confidence: C/53 [CI95: C→C, 52-53] (499 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.

Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.

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