When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 78 | 4% | 46% | 42.6% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 2 | 14% | 100% | 86.0% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 2 | 31% | 0% | 30.6% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 2 | 42% | 0% | 42.3% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 2 | 54% | 0% | 54.3% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 2 | 77% | 100% | 23.1% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 4 | 88% | 100% | 11.8% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 4 | 93% | 0% | 92.6% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 54 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $926 in / $0 out across 8 withdrawal tx since 2026-05-13.
3100 total trades across 84 markets.
96 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 43.9% — needs improvement.
Skill: 15/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 100/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -65.5% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.2121 RES=0.0463 UNC=0.2483.
Log loss: 1.4709 (skill: -113.3% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
No demonstrated forecasting skill. This trader performs at or below random chance based on available data.
Confidence: F/21 [CI95: F→F, 17-25] (96 resolved bets). Moderate confidence — score may shift as more markets resolve.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.