When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 1 | 1% | 0% | 1.2% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 8 | 16% | 0% | 15.8% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 13 | 26% | 0% | 25.7% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 28 | 37% | 0% | 36.6% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 98 | 45% | 0% | 45.1% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 35 | 53% | 0% | 53.4% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 10 | 64% | 0% | 64.1% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 9 | 76% | 0% | 75.7% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 4 | 82% | 0% | 81.5% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 90 days, 2983 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 20/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $4,789 in / $0 out across 34 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-02.
3100 total trades across 176 markets.
206 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 45.7% — needs improvement.
Skill: 5/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 23/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: 9.2% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.2263 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 0.6480 (skill: -8094.5% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
This trader shows some skill signal, but not enough to clearly distinguish from luck. More data needed.
Confidence: C/52 [CI95: C→C, 51-53] (206 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.