VIGIL Trust Score for the AI Agent Economy
musicistheanswer
0xe0507bbe93606f368a645394d604b065a7d9d7a9
Polymarket Trader
DEVELOPING
Mixed signals. More data needed.
Calibration Analysis
When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 10 | 5% | 0% | 4.5% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 8 | 14% | 0% | 14.1% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 13 | 25% | 0% | 25.3% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 15 | 35% | 0% | 35.1% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 21 | 45% | 0% | 44.6% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 30 | 53% | 0% | 53.5% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 5 | 62% | 0% | 61.9% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 1 | 70% | 0% | 70.3% |
Calibration Error: 38.2%
Reliability (CAL)
0.1751
Lower = better calibrated
Resolution (RES)
0.0000
Higher = stronger opinions
Brier Skill Score
29.6%
vs naive baseline
Log Loss
0.5195
Skill: -6470.3% vs naive — sensitive to rare events
Skill & Variance Analysis
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
Signals
✓ Strong Brier score: 0.1759
✓ Brier Skill Score: 29.6% better than naive baseline
✓ Proven track record bonus: +3 pts (103 resolved bets, positive BSS, profitable)
✓ Net profitable: +$273 total PnL
✓ Well-diversified: 103 unique markets
✓ On-chain: human-like trading patterns
✓ On-chain: diverse counterparty network
⚠ Overconfidence bias: 0.382
⚠ Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions
⚠ Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected
⚠ Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address
⚠ Low win rate: 0%
⚠ PnL divergence: $6327 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows
⚠ On-chain coverage gap: 267 Polymarket USDC withdrawals observed, but only 103 resolved bets recovered from data-api + CLOB. Grade based on a subset of the wallet's forecasting history.
On-Chain Verification (Polygon)
Protocols: USDC.e (Bridged)
PnL divergence: $6327.44 gap between API and on-chain USDC
✓ Heavy on-chain activity: 2999 txs
✓ Significant USDC flow: $25,688
✓ Human-like transaction patterns
✓ Diverse trading network: 30 counterparties
⚠ Young wallet: only 22 days old
⚠ Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction
Reasoning
On-chain verification: wallet age 22 days, 2999 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $9,164 in / $0 out across 267 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-04.
3100 total trades across 103 markets.
103 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 38.2% — needs improvement.
Skill: 14/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 28/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: 29.6% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.1751 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 0.5195 (skill: -6470.3% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
What Does C/50 Mean?
This trader shows some skill signal, but not enough to clearly distinguish from luck. More data needed.
Confidence: C/50 [CI95: D→C, 49-51] (103 resolved bets). Moderate confidence — score may shift as more markets resolve.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.