VIGIL: cry.eth2 scored C/57

cry.eth2

0xe3726a1b9c6ba2f06585d1c9e01d00afaedaeb38

Polymarket Trader

DEVELOPING

Mixed signals. More data needed.

C

57 / 100

VIGIL Dimensions

Calibration

96

Profitability

0

Consistency

100

Discipline

50

Sample Size

100

Live Edge

40

Raw Metrics

Total PnL

$-1775436.86

Win Rate

0%

Resolved Bets

1000

Total Trades

2000

Volume

$6491

Markets

667

Brier Score

0.0116

Open Positions

0

Brier Skill

95.4%

Log Loss

0.056

Calibration Analysis

When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.

Bucket	Bets	Expected	Actual	Error
0.00-0.10	896	2%	0%	1.9%
0.10-0.20	20	15%	0%	14.8%
0.20-0.30	44	24%	0%	24.0%
0.30-0.40	12	32%	0%	32.1%
0.40-0.50	6	47%	0%	47.5%
0.50-0.60	22	50%	0%	50.0%

Calibration Error: 4.8%

Reliability (CAL)

0.0114

Lower = better calibrated

Resolution (RES)

0.0000

Higher = stronger opinions

Brier Skill Score

95.4%

vs naive baseline

Log Loss

0.0562

Skill: -610.1% vs naive — sensitive to rare events

Skill & Variance Analysis

Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).

54

Skill Score

62

Variance

Signals

✓ Strong Brier score: 0.0116

✓ Brier Skill Score: 95.4% better than naive baseline

✓ Well-diversified: 667 unique markets

✓ On-chain: 554-day wallet history on Polygon

⚠ Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions

⚠ Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected

⚠ Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address

⚠ Net loss: -$1775437 total PnL

⚠ Low win rate: 0%

⚠ Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market

⚠ PnL divergence: $1775476 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows

⚠ On-chain: possible automated trading (bot score: 30)

On-Chain Verification (Polygon)

Wallet Age

554d

Txns on Base

2710

Counterparties

11

USDC In

$1715

USDC Out

$1676

Provenance

B (76)

Protocols: USDC, USDC.e (Bridged)

PnL divergence: $1775475.91 gap between API and on-chain USDC

✓ Wallet age: 554 days (mature)

✓ Heavy on-chain activity: 2710 txs

⚠ Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction

⚠ Possible automated trading: 10 burst txs

Reasoning

On-chain verification: wallet age 554 days, 2710 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 30/100, wash trading score: 20/100.

2000 total trades across 667 markets.

1000 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.

Calibration error: 4.8% — excellent.

Skill: 54/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 62/100 (higher = more volatile returns).

Brier Skill Score: 95.4% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).

Brier decomposition: REL=0.0114 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.

Log loss: 0.0562 (skill: -610.1% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.

What Does C/57 Mean?

This trader shows some skill signal, but not enough to clearly distinguish from luck. More data needed.

Confidence: C/57 ± 3 (high confidence, 1000 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.

Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.

Share This Score

POST ON X SCORE CARD