When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 8 | 8% | 50% | 42.3% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 38 | 15% | 58% | 42.9% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 72 | 25% | 36% | 11.1% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 40 | 35% | 40% | 4.6% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 54 | 45% | 37% | 7.8% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 44 | 55% | 55% | 0.0% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 64 | 66% | 59% | 6.3% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 54 | 75% | 37% | 37.8% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 26 | 84% | 54% | 30.4% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 6 | 94% | 100% | 6.0% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 15 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
2000 total trades across 128 markets.
406 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 16.4% — good.
Skill: 43/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 100/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -14.5% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.0496 RES=0.0138 UNC=0.2490.
Log loss: 0.7918 (skill: -14.6% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
This trader shows some skill signal, but not enough to clearly distinguish from luck. More data needed.
Confidence: C/56 ± 3 (high confidence, 406 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.