When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 6 | 3% | 0% | 2.9% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 12 | 15% | 0% | 15.5% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 20 | 25% | 0% | 24.9% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 18 | 37% | 0% | 37.0% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 54 | 46% | 0% | 45.7% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 34 | 54% | 0% | 54.3% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 15 | 64% | 0% | 64.4% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 7 | 75% | 0% | 74.6% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 5 | 83% | 0% | 83.1% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 3 | 92% | 0% | 91.9% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 34 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.
3100 total trades across 278 markets.
174 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 45.2% — needs improvement.
Skill: 6/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 19/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: 4.5% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.2380 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 0.6766 (skill: -8456.3% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
Timeliness: avg entry 4.9 days before resolution, 0% early mover.
Below average. The data shows poor calibration, thin evidence, or both. When this trader expresses high confidence, events don't happen at the rate they imply.
Confidence: D/42 [CI95: D→D, 41-43] (174 resolved bets). Moderate confidence — score may shift as more markets resolve.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.