VIGIL: Domerina scored C/64

Domerina

0xf4ad6aedf5475f2023912cd191eff5ec90ead00b

Polymarket Trader

DEVELOPING

Mixed signals. More data needed.

C

64 / 100

VIGIL Dimensions

Calibration

87

Profitability

39

Consistency

60

Discipline

93

Sample Size

75

Live Edge

69

Raw Metrics

Total PnL

$-273.97

Win Rate

8%

Resolved Bets

76

Total Trades

2000

Volume

$79518

Markets

860

Brier Score

0.058

Open Positions

20

Brier Skill

20.2%

Log Loss

0.203

Calibration Analysis

When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.

Bucket	Bets	Expected	Actual	Error
0.00-0.10	66	2%	3%	0.6%
0.10-0.20	6	16%	33%	17.1%
0.20-0.30	2	27%	0%	27.0%
0.40-0.50	2	43%	100%	57.0%

Calibration Error: 4.1%

Reliability (CAL)

0.0128

Lower = better calibrated

Resolution (RES)

0.0297

Higher = stronger opinions

Brier Skill Score

20.2%

vs naive baseline

Log Loss

0.2027

Skill: 26.6% vs naive — sensitive to rare events

Skill & Variance Analysis

Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).

60

Skill Score

74

Variance

Signals

✓ Strong Brier score: 0.058

✓ Brier Skill Score: 20.2% better than naive baseline

✓ Log loss skill: 26.6% better than naive (rare-event sensitive)

✓ Well-diversified: 860 unique markets

✓ On-chain: 881-day wallet history on Polygon

✓ On-chain: human-like trading patterns

✓ On-chain: diverse counterparty network

⚠ High luck component: 74/100 — returns may not persist

⚠ Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address

⚠ Net loss: -$274 total PnL

⚠ Low win rate: 8%

On-Chain Verification (Polygon)

Wallet Age

881d

Txns on Base

2304

Counterparties

34

USDC In

$76939

USDC Out

$76582

Provenance

A (86)

Protocols: USDC, USDC.e (Bridged)

PnL verified: $631.15 gap between API and on-chain USDC

✓ Wallet age: 881 days (mature)

✓ Heavy on-chain activity: 2304 txs

✓ Significant USDC flow: $153,520

✓ Human-like transaction patterns

✓ Diverse trading network: 34 counterparties

⚠ Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction

Reasoning

On-chain verification: wallet age 881 days, 2304 txs, provenance grade A. Bot score: 10/100, wash trading score: 0/100.

2000 total trades across 860 markets.

76 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.

Calibration error: 4.1% — excellent.

Skill: 60/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 74/100 (higher = more volatile returns).

Brier Skill Score: 20.2% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).

Brier decomposition: REL=0.0128 RES=0.0297 UNC=0.0727.

Log loss: 0.2027 (skill: 26.6% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.

What Does C/64 Mean?

This trader shows some skill signal, but not enough to clearly distinguish from luck. More data needed.

Confidence: C/64 ± 8 (medium confidence, 76 resolved bets). Moderate confidence — score may shift as more markets resolve.

Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.

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