VIGIL Trust Score for the AI Agent Economy
Trader 0xff5cf4...
0xff5cf46e3e36c481a3abf698792feb7be3c1e379
Polymarket Trader
SOLID
Process is working. Metrics hold up under scrutiny.
Calibration Analysis
When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 28 | 1% | 0% | 1.5% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 2 | 10% | 0% | 10.4% |
Calibration Error: 2.1%
Reliability (CAL)
0.0009
Lower = better calibrated
Resolution (RES)
0.0000
Higher = stronger opinions
Brier Skill Score
99.6%
vs naive baseline
Log Loss
0.0212
Skill: -168.3% vs naive — sensitive to rare events
Skill & Variance Analysis
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
Signals
✓ Strong Brier score: 0.001
✓ Brier Skill Score: 99.6% better than naive baseline
✓ Strong live edge: 6 open positions trending profitable
✓ Well-diversified: 712 unique markets
✓ On-chain: human-like trading patterns
✓ On-chain: diverse counterparty network
⚠ Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions
⚠ Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected
⚠ Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address
⚠ Low win rate: 0%
On-Chain Verification (Polygon)
Protocols: USDC.e (Bridged)
PnL verified: $479.25 gap between API and on-chain USDC
✓ Heavy on-chain activity: 2942 txs
✓ Human-like transaction patterns
✓ Diverse trading network: 42 counterparties
⚠ Young wallet: only 19 days old
⚠ Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction
Reasoning
On-chain verification: wallet age 19 days, 2942 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
2000 total trades across 712 markets.
30 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 2.1% — excellent.
Skill: 58/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 58/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: 99.6% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.0009 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 0.0212 (skill: -168.3% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
What Does B/70 Mean?
This trader shows genuine forecasting skill with a meaningful edge across multiple markets.
Confidence: B/70 ± 15 (low confidence, 30 resolved bets). Low confidence — take this score with a grain of salt until more markets resolve.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.