// live divergence leaderboard

Where the sharp money disagrees with the crowd.

Every row is an active Polymarket market where the skill-weighted consensus (graded wallets only, weighted by grade × √stake × exp(−days/30)) diverges from the current market-implied price. Ranked by |Δ|. Each row links to the full consensus page with every contributing wallet.

Not a trade signal. Divergence is a measurement — the gap between what well-calibrated forecasters reveal through their positions and what the market is pricing. Skilled traders are wrong ~5% of the time inside their 95% CI by construction. New information moves the market before it moves consensus. Read the methodology before acting on anything here.

Scanned

40

Qualified

0

Top Δ

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As Of (UTC)

21 Apr 2026 00:15

#	Market	Crowd	Skilled Money	Δ	Sample
No qualifying markets right now. Each row needs ≥5 graded wallets holding positions, effective sample ≥ 0.5, and a live market price.

// gates

A market only qualifies for this ranking if at least 5 graded wallets hold positions in it, the effective sample size ≥ 0.5 (Σ of grade × decay weights — roughly half an A-grade wallet's worth of signal), and the market price is live. Below those thresholds we refuse to publish a number — noise is worse than silence. Data refreshes every 5 minutes.