VIGIL Geopolitics Skill Leaderboard
LIVE: Iran peace deal · Strait of Hormuz · Global election markets — $47M+ weekly volume

Wallets ranked by actual forecasting skill — Brier Skill Score, calibration, bootstrap CI95 — not PnL. Geopolitics is 47% of Polymarket volume; the loudest traders are rarely the most right.
Last updated: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 15:26:43 GMT · 30,792 wallets scanned

Featured Launch-Day Markets — Skill-Weighted Consensus
IRAN
Iran peace deal resolves 2026
See A/B-wallet consensus →
HORMUZ
Strait of Hormuz closure
See A/B-wallet consensus →
BTC
BTC $150k by July 31?
See A/B-wallet consensus →
See all divergence markets →
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# Trader Grade BSS Cal Error Resolved PnL
1 alwayslatetotheparty B/73 +100% 1.6% 126 +$691,376
2 Admirable-Trust C/62 +98% 5.8% 1000 +$14,107
3 kch123 C/59 +37% 35.0% 36 +$11,866,256
4 std0 C/58 +18% 44.2% 34 -$122
5 sixx7 C/56 -999% 49.0% 983 +$53,533
6 Polkadot-Frog C/55 -999% 52.3% 992 +$83,174
7 aoe2gamer C/55 +11% 46.1% 112 +$1
8 Joble C/53 +4% 48.1% 332 +$0
9 dolita C/53 +9% 47.2% 82 +$0
10 Jubilant-Phrase C/53 -49% 33.2% 849 +$385
11 UUDDLRLR C/52 -16% 52.7% 223 +$0
12 screenSaver C/52 -999% 49.5% 992 +$94,189
13 Thick-Painter C/52 +74% 15.0% 501 +$0
14 JetFadil C/50 +0% 47.7% 200 +$0
15 donaldtrump5 C/50 +17% 43.4% 260 +$0
16 KimchiJuSaeYo D/47 +2% 47.3% 254 +$1,948
17 58080B D/47 -999% 48.9% 126 +$0
18 godspeed11 D/47 +9% 46.8% 93 +$0
19 Trader 0x20d230... D/46 -999% 49.4% 394 -$23
20 Under-btc-low D/46 -3% 50.1% 500 +$0
21 swisstony D/44 -78% 39.0% 260 +$6,100,031
22 mooseborzoi D/44 -4% 7.7% 102 +$155,890
23 Agile-Spacing D/44 -19% 53.0% 226 +$0
24 ZinDotGae D/44 -11% 49.3% 198 +$1,756
25 fasoni D/44 -9% 49.1% 169 +$0
26 BillBenter2026 D/41 -999% 30.3% 984 +$0
27 Lively-Authenticity D/41 -951% 47.6% 286 +$0
28 fj3fwasjnk3t4 D/41 -999% 49.4% 996 -$1,254
29 Fredi9999 D/41 -21% 27.4% 40 +$16,619,507
30 Bonereaper D/40 -150% 41.7% 60 +$1,833
31 Trader 0x61eab7... D/40 -12% 23.1% 184 -$818
32 RN1 D/39 -731% 46.7% 962 +$7,465,792
33 Trader 0xb27bc9... D/39 -46% 47.6% 60 -$1,858
34 0xAAAAA D/39 -372% 42.9% 202 +$384
35 Enraged-Ox D/39 -89% 62.6% 880 +$0
36 Trader 0x75cc3b... D/38 -871% 34.8% 325 -$92
37 Trader 0x5d4aba... D/38 -32% 51.9% 444 +$7
38 tataeerear D/38 -48% 46.8% 999 -$96
39 Len9311238 D/38 -10% 51.2% 7 +$8,709,973
40 Theo4 D/37 -460% 52.2% 14 +$22,053,934
41 OhioRiskManagement D/36 -52% 52.6% 1000 -$230
42 Trader 0x5e2b92... D/36 -999% 35.9% 337 -$51
43 dgcf D/36 -34% 50.4% 996 +$0
44 PrincessCaro D/35 -26% 24.5% 14 +$6,083,643
45 nj23adsknml3 F/34 -722% 44.0% 1000 -$5,272
46 neversmiling F/33 -999% 47.3% 992 +$24,294
47 tnotmotnotgwcrf F/33 -95% 61.5% 818 +$0
48 zxgngl F/31 -48% 34.3% 6 +$7,807,266
49 ToTheMoon0915 F/31 -999% 49.2% 1000 +$0
50 RepTrump F/31 -142% 40.9% 8 +$7,532,410
51 DkOYL F/30 -91% 4.1% 470 -$5,230
52 donthackme F/28 -68% 4.0% 884 +$630,742
53 Blaring-Backdrop F/27 -75% 33.5% 150 -$11,061
54 neutralwave23 F/24 -999% 28.0% 924 -$46,904
55 Impressive-Steak F/23 -47% 36.5% 750 +$168,257
56 NyetRisk F/19 -60% 2.7% 524 -$11,169
57 0x562a11BCD7354Ea82 F/17 -490% 14.9% 221 +$0
58 suntori F/10 -97% 10.6% 550 +$17,658
VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice.
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