VIGIL Geopolitics Skill Leaderboard
LIVE: Iran peace deal · Strait of Hormuz · Global election markets — $47M+ weekly volume

Wallets ranked by actual forecasting skill — Brier Skill Score, calibration, bootstrap CI95 — not PnL. Geopolitics is 47% of Polymarket volume; the loudest traders are rarely the most right.
Last updated: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 07:05:42 GMT · 24,250 wallets scanned

Featured Launch-Day Markets — Skill-Weighted Consensus
IRAN
Iran peace deal resolves 2026
See A/B-wallet consensus →
HORMUZ
Strait of Hormuz closure
See A/B-wallet consensus →
BTC
BTC $150k by July 31?
See A/B-wallet consensus →
See all divergence markets →
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# Trader Grade BSS Cal Error Resolved PnL
1 Mysaria A/81 +98% 5.5% 972 +$32,689
2 Favorable-Pepper-B... C/58 +18% 6.8% 239 -$12,246
3 Polkadot-Frog C/56 -999% 52.3% 986 +$79,748
4 RN1 D/48 -238% 42.3% 990 +$7,465,792
5 swisstony D/44 -166% 41.7% 501 +$6,100,031
6 nj23adsknml3 D/41 -439% 42.7% 960 -$7,966
7 Fredi9999 D/41 -21% 27.4% 40 +$16,619,507
8 OhioRiskManagement D/38 -33% 50.5% 1000 -$5,075
9 Len9311238 D/38 -10% 51.2% 7 +$8,709,973
10 Theo4 D/37 -460% 52.2% 14 +$22,053,934
11 Lively-Authenticity D/36 -999% 56.9% 982 -$4,323
12 Agile-Spacing D/36 -514% 44.1% 980 -$759
13 Bonereaper D/35 -999% 52.9% 988 -$982
14 PrincessCaro D/35 -26% 24.5% 14 +$6,083,643
15 UpTheBlues F/34 -999% 40.0% 994 -$163,888
16 zxgngl F/31 -48% 34.3% 6 +$7,807,266
17 RepTrump F/31 -142% 40.9% 8 +$7,532,410
18 kch123 F/27 -999% 37.4% 520 +$11,866,256
19 Flaznorp F/18 -114% 53.9% 69 -$3,473
VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice.
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