VIGIL Geopolitics Skill Leaderboard
LIVE: Iran peace deal · Strait of Hormuz · Global election markets — $47M+ weekly volume

Wallets ranked by actual forecasting skill — Brier Skill Score, calibration, bootstrap CI95 — not PnL. Geopolitics is 47% of Polymarket volume; the loudest traders are rarely the most right.
Last updated: Sat, 25 Jul 2026 01:03:52 GMT · 1,136 wallets scanned

Featured Launch-Day Markets — Skill-Weighted Consensus
IRAN
Iran peace deal resolves 2026
See A/B-wallet consensus →
HORMUZ
Strait of Hormuz closure
See A/B-wallet consensus →
BTC
BTC $150k by July 31?
See A/B-wallet consensus →
See all divergence markets →
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# Trader Grade BSS Cal Error Resolved PnL
1 kch123 D/49 +27% 39.0% 78 +$11,866,256
2 swisstony D/43 -83% 40.4% 246 +$6,100,031
3 RN1 D/41 -999% 44.4% 988 +$7,465,792
4 Fredi9999 D/41 -21% 27.4% 40 +$16,619,507
5 Len9311238 D/38 -10% 51.2% 7 +$8,709,973
6 Theo4 D/37 -460% 52.2% 14 +$22,053,934
7 PrincessCaro D/35 -26% 24.5% 14 +$6,083,643
8 zxgngl F/31 -48% 34.3% 6 +$7,807,266
9 RepTrump F/31 -142% 40.9% 8 +$7,532,410
VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice.
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