When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 188 | 4% | 0% | 4.3% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 104 | 15% | 0% | 15.0% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 52 | 24% | 0% | 24.4% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 32 | 35% | 0% | 35.0% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 32 | 43% | 0% | 43.4% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 36 | 55% | 0% | 55.4% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 66 | 65% | 0% | 65.3% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 104 | 75% | 0% | 75.2% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 148 | 86% | 0% | 86.2% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 238 | 96% | 0% | 95.5% |
On-chain verification: wallet age 47 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade D. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.
3100 total trades across 352 markets.
1000 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 55.8% — needs improvement.
Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 26/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -76.7% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.4409 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 1.4119 (skill: -17756.1% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
No demonstrated forecasting skill. This trader performs at or below random chance based on available data.
Confidence: F/33 [CI95: F→F, 32-34] (1000 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.