When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 40 | 4% | 0% | 3.7% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 2 | 15% | 0% | 15.0% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 10 days, 622 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 80/100, wash trading score: 80/100.
213 total trades across 90 markets.
42 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 4.3% — excellent.
Skill: 55/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 17/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: 98.9% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.0024 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 0.0443 (skill: -460.2% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
This trader shows genuine forecasting skill with a meaningful edge across multiple markets.
Confidence: B/76 ± 15 (low confidence, 42 resolved bets). Low confidence — take this score with a grain of salt until more markets resolve.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.