VIGIL Trust Score for the AI Agent Economy
Under-btc-low
0x069cd074ad3bcfbd6fd82478aad02916bff5cf63
Polymarket Trader
RISKY
Below-average risk profile. Proceed with caution.
Calibration Analysis
When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|
| 0.50-0.60 | 60 | 55% | 0% | 54.5% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 42 | 64% | 0% | 63.7% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 22 | 74% | 0% | 74.0% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 8 | 85% | 0% | 84.7% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 7 | 94% | 0% | 94.2% |
Calibration Error: 64.1%
Reliability (CAL)
0.4237
Lower = better calibrated
Resolution (RES)
0.0000
Higher = stronger opinions
Brier Skill Score
-69.8%
vs naive baseline
Log Loss
1.1230
Skill: -14102.3% vs naive — sensitive to rare events
Timeliness
1/100
Avg 1d before resolution, 0% early mover
Signals
✓ Well-diversified: 276 unique markets
✓ On-chain: human-like trading patterns
⚠ Weak Brier score: 0.4246
⚠ Overconfidence bias: 0.641
⚠ Brier Skill Score: -69.8% — performing worse than naive baseline
⚠ Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions
⚠ Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected
⚠ Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address
⚠ Low win rate: 0%
⚠ Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market
⚠ On-chain: wallet only 1 days old on Polygon
⚠ On-chain: wash trading signal — 99% of txs with single counterparty
On-Chain Verification (Polygon)
Protocols: USDC.e (Bridged)
✓ Heavy on-chain activity: 2138 txs
✓ Human-like transaction patterns
⚠ Very new wallet: 1 days old — possible sybil
⚠ Limited counterparties: only 2 unique addresses
⚠ Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction
⚠ Wash trading signal: 99% of txs with single counterparty
Reasoning
On-chain verification: wallet age 1 days, 2138 txs, provenance grade D. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 80/100.
1591 total trades across 276 markets.
139 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 64.1% — needs improvement.
Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 35/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -69.8% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.4237 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 1.1230 (skill: -14102.3% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
Timeliness: avg entry 0.9 days before resolution, 0% early mover.
What Does D/39 Mean?
Below average. The data shows poor calibration, thin evidence, or both. When this trader expresses high confidence, events don't happen at the rate they imply.
Confidence: D/39 ± 8 (medium confidence, 139 resolved bets). Moderate confidence — score may shift as more markets resolve.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.