When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 46 | 4% | 15% | 11.7% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 15 | 13% | 27% | 13.4% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 12 | 27% | 17% | 10.0% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 19 | 35% | 26% | 8.6% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 46 | 46% | 7% | 39.3% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 27 | 55% | 11% | 43.8% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 21 | 64% | 0% | 63.7% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 13 | 74% | 15% | 58.9% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 12 | 83% | 33% | 49.8% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 27 | 95% | 4% | 91.7% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 18 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade D. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.
3100 total trades across 204 markets.
238 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 38.6% — needs improvement.
Skill: 15/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 71/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -187.2% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.2190 RES=0.0082 UNC=0.1133.
Log loss: 1.0048 (skill: -159.7% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
Timeliness: avg entry 4.0 days before resolution, 0% early mover.
Below average. The data shows poor calibration, thin evidence, or both. When this trader expresses high confidence, events don't happen at the rate they imply.
Confidence: D/47 [CI95: D→D, 45-49] (238 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.