When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.30-0.40 | 2 | 34% | 0% | 34.3% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 66 | 45% | 0% | 45.5% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 25 | 54% | 0% | 54.2% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 11 | 64% | 0% | 64.5% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 4 | 76% | 0% | 75.9% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 1 | 85% | 0% | 85.2% |
On-chain verification: wallet age 3 days, 879 txs, provenance grade D. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.
772 total trades across 155 markets.
109 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 50.6% — needs improvement.
Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 17/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -6.0% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.2643 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 0.7295 (skill: -9125.9% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
Timeliness: avg entry 0.7 days before resolution, 0% early mover.
Below average. The data shows poor calibration, thin evidence, or both. When this trader expresses high confidence, events don't happen at the rate they imply.
Confidence: D/41 [CI95: D→D, 40-42] (109 resolved bets). Moderate confidence — score may shift as more markets resolve.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.