VIGIL: Agreeable-Sherbet scored D/38

Agreeable-Sherbet

0x0f520c68e29957150b32183eacf119e493d15978

Polymarket Trader

RISKY

Below-average risk profile. Proceed with caution.

D

38 / 100

VIGIL Dimensions

Calibration

20

Profitability

0

Consistency

68

Discipline

50

Sample Size

100

Live Edge

40

Raw Metrics

Total PnL

$-8853.36

Win Rate

0%

Resolved Bets

914

Total Trades

2232

Volume

$10986

Markets

843

Brier Score

0.3297

Open Positions

0

Brier Skill

-31.9%

Log Loss

0.947

Calibration Analysis

When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.

Bucket	Bets	Expected	Actual	Error
0.00-0.10	50	7%	0%	7.4%
0.10-0.20	98	14%	0%	14.4%
0.20-0.30	120	25%	0%	25.1%
0.30-0.40	108	35%	0%	35.0%
0.40-0.50	88	44%	0%	44.4%
0.50-0.60	64	55%	0%	54.9%
0.60-0.70	102	65%	0%	65.0%
0.70-0.80	118	74%	0%	74.3%
0.80-0.90	92	85%	0%	85.5%
0.90-1.00	74	94%	0%	94.0%

Calibration Error: 50.6%

Reliability (CAL)

0.3289

Lower = better calibrated

Resolution (RES)

0.0000

Higher = stronger opinions

Brier Skill Score

-31.9%

vs naive baseline

Log Loss

0.9470

Skill: -11875.8% vs naive — sensitive to rare events

Signals

✓ Well-diversified: 843 unique markets

✓ On-chain: human-like trading patterns

⚠ Overconfidence bias: 0.506

⚠ High luck component: 100/100 — returns may not persist

⚠ Brier Skill Score: -31.9% — performing worse than naive baseline

⚠ Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions

⚠ Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected

⚠ Net loss: -$8853 total PnL

⚠ Low win rate: 0%

⚠ Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market

⚠ PnL divergence: $8853 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows

On-Chain Verification (Polygon)

Wallet Age

20d

Txns on Base

2000

Counterparties

0

USDC In

$53

USDC Out

$53

Provenance

D (38)

Protocols: USDC.e (Bridged)

PnL divergence: $8853.36 gap between API and on-chain USDC

✓ Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs

✓ Human-like transaction patterns

⚠ Young wallet: only 20 days old

⚠ Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses

⚠ No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers

Reasoning

On-chain verification: wallet age 20 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade D. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.

Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.

2232 total trades across 843 markets.

914 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.

Calibration error: 50.6% — needs improvement.

Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 100/100 (higher = more volatile returns).

Brier Skill Score: -31.9% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).

Brier decomposition: REL=0.3289 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.

Log loss: 0.9470 (skill: -11875.8% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.

What Does D/38 Mean?

Below average. The data shows poor calibration, thin evidence, or both. When this trader expresses high confidence, events don't happen at the rate they imply.

Confidence: D/38 [CI95: D→D, 37-39] (914 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.

Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.

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