VIGIL: mads1 scored D/42

mads1

0x0fce7c54120bfc84407035579f942a83290263d5

Polymarket Trader

RISKY

Below-average risk profile. Proceed with caution.

D

42 / 100

VIGIL Dimensions

Calibration

9

Profitability

0

Consistency

94

Discipline

96

Sample Size

100

Live Edge

56

Raw Metrics

Total PnL

$-118129.49

Win Rate

3%

Resolved Bets

858

Total Trades

3100

Volume

$146866

Markets

214

Brier Score

0.2322

Open Positions

142

Brier Skill

-690.3%

Log Loss

0.715

Calibration Analysis

When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.

Bucket	Bets	Expected	Actual	Error
0.00-0.10	154	5%	17%	11.4%
0.10-0.20	100	14%	0%	14.2%
0.20-0.30	86	25%	0%	25.2%
0.30-0.40	120	36%	0%	35.7%
0.40-0.50	152	45%	0%	44.7%
0.50-0.60	94	54%	0%	54.3%
0.60-0.70	52	65%	0%	65.2%
0.70-0.80	36	75%	0%	74.9%
0.80-0.90	32	85%	0%	84.6%
0.90-1.00	32	93%	0%	92.9%

Calibration Error: 38.8%

Reliability (CAL)

0.2047

Lower = better calibrated

Resolution (RES)

0.0042

Higher = stronger opinions

Brier Skill Score

-690.3%

vs naive baseline

Log Loss

0.7149

Skill: -426.5% vs naive — sensitive to rare events

Skill & Variance Analysis

Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).

14

Skill Score

62

Variance

Signals

✓ Well-diversified: 214 unique markets

✓ On-chain: human-like trading patterns

✓ On-chain: diverse counterparty network

✓ On-chain: $18,466 total USDC.e received from Polymarket contracts across 116 tx (Polygon)

⚠ Overconfidence bias: 0.347

⚠ Brier Skill Score: -690.3% — performing worse than naive baseline

⚠ Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions

⚠ Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected

⚠ Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address

⚠ Net loss: -$118129 total PnL

⚠ Low win rate: 3%

⚠ PnL divergence: $123078 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows

On-Chain Verification (Polygon)

Wallet Age

89d

Txns on Base

2134

Counterparties

53

USDC In

$31372

USDC Out

$26424

Provenance

B (73)

Protocols: USDC.e (Bridged)

PnL divergence: $123077.52 gap between API and on-chain USDC

✓ Heavy on-chain activity: 2134 txs

✓ Diverse counterparties: 53 unique addresses

✓ Significant USDC flow: $57,796

✓ Human-like transaction patterns

✓ Diverse trading network: 53 counterparties

⚠ Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction

Reasoning

On-chain verification: wallet age 89 days, 2134 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 10/100, wash trading score: 0/100.

Polymarket on-chain coverage: $18,466 in / $0 out across 116 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-07.

3100 total trades across 214 markets.

858 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.

Calibration error: 38.8% — needs improvement.

Skill: 14/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 62/100 (higher = more volatile returns).

Brier Skill Score: -690.3% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).

Brier decomposition: REL=0.2047 RES=0.0042 UNC=0.0294.

Log loss: 0.7149 (skill: -426.5% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.

What Does D/42 Mean?

Below average. The data shows poor calibration, thin evidence, or both. When this trader expresses high confidence, events don't happen at the rate they imply.

Confidence: D/42 [CI95: D→D, 41-43] (858 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.

Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.

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