When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 2 | 4% | 0% | 3.5% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 4 | 14% | 0% | 14.0% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 12 | 25% | 0% | 25.1% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 41 | 35% | 0% | 35.0% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 79 | 45% | 0% | 45.3% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 71 | 55% | 0% | 55.1% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 92 | 65% | 0% | 64.9% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 79 | 75% | 0% | 74.6% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 60 | 85% | 0% | 84.5% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 40 | 95% | 0% | 94.8% |
On-chain verification: wallet age 21 days, 2356 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 50/100.
2823 total trades across 1014 markets.
480 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 62.5% — needs improvement.
Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 19/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -71.2% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.4273 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 1.1947 (skill: -15009.0% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
Timeliness: avg entry 4.1 days before resolution, 0% early mover.
Below average. The data shows poor calibration, thin evidence, or both. When this trader expresses high confidence, events don't happen at the rate they imply.
Confidence: D/48 ± 3 (high confidence, 480 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.