VIGIL Trust Score for the AI Agent Economy
geriatric-toad
0x129b7597d55236654aad74de9a3139253b259274
Polymarket Trader
DANGER
High probability of further losses.
Calibration Analysis
When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|
| 0.20-0.30 | 2 | 29% | 0% | 28.8% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 3 | 36% | 0% | 36.4% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 10 | 46% | 0% | 45.5% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 14 | 54% | 0% | 54.0% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 2 | 67% | 0% | 67.2% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 1 | 79% | 0% | 78.7% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 1 | 94% | 0% | 93.7% |
Calibration Error: 51.1%
Reliability (CAL)
0.2764
Lower = better calibrated
Resolution (RES)
0.0000
Higher = stronger opinions
Brier Skill Score
-10.8%
vs naive baseline
Log Loss
0.7747
Skill: -9697.4% vs naive — sensitive to rare events
Signals
✓ Well-diversified: 36 unique markets
✓ On-chain: human-like trading patterns
✓ On-chain: $33,319 total USDC.e received from Polymarket contracts across 364 tx (Polygon)
⚠ Overconfidence bias: 0.511
⚠ Brier Skill Score: -10.8% — performing worse than naive baseline
⚠ Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions
⚠ Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected
⚠ Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address
⚠ Weak live edge: open positions mostly underwater
⚠ Net loss: -$3434 total PnL
⚠ Low win rate: 0%
⚠ PnL divergence: $5700 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows
⚠ On-chain coverage gap: 364 Polymarket USDC withdrawals observed, but only 33 resolved bets recovered from data-api + CLOB. Grade based on a subset of the wallet's forecasting history.
On-Chain Verification (Polygon)
Protocols: USDC.e (Bridged)
PnL divergence: $5699.79 gap between API and on-chain USDC
✓ Heavy on-chain activity: 2965 txs
✓ Significant USDC flow: $69,458
✓ Human-like transaction patterns
⚠ Young wallet: only 17 days old
⚠ Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction
Reasoning
On-chain verification: wallet age 17 days, 2965 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 20/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $33,319 in / $0 out across 364 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-07.
3100 total trades across 36 markets.
33 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 51.1% — needs improvement.
Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 15/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -10.8% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.2764 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 0.7747 (skill: -9697.4% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
What Does F/33 Mean?
No demonstrated forecasting skill. This trader performs at or below random chance based on available data.
Confidence: F/33 [CI95: F→D, 30-35] (33 resolved bets). Low confidence — take this score with a grain of salt until more markets resolve.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.