When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 86 | 7% | 0% | 6.8% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 64 | 15% | 0% | 15.0% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 86 | 25% | 2% | 22.3% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 92 | 35% | 0% | 34.5% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 76 | 45% | 0% | 45.2% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 96 | 53% | 0% | 53.5% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 62 | 65% | 0% | 64.7% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 60 | 75% | 0% | 74.7% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 104 | 86% | 0% | 85.8% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 272 | 93% | 0% | 93.1% |
On-chain verification: wallet age 101 days, 2995 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $5,727 in / $0 out across 67 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-06.
3100 total trades across 827 markets.
998 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 58.1% — needs improvement.
Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 42/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -21664.6% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.4326 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0020.
Log loss: 1.3042 (skill: -8924.5% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
No demonstrated forecasting skill. This trader performs at or below random chance based on available data.
Confidence: F/33 [CI95: F→F, 32-34] (998 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.