VIGIL Trust Score for the AI Agent Economy
tnotmotnotgwcrf
0x167a59f38ffe5eb3b116c793fae3ae295070d542
Polymarket Trader
DANGER
High probability of further losses.
Calibration Analysis
When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 26 | 7% | 0% | 6.9% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 6 | 10% | 0% | 10.5% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 2 | 22% | 0% | 22.2% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 22 | 88% | 0% | 88.0% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 92 | 93% | 0% | 93.5% |
Calibration Error: 73.1%
Reliability (CAL)
0.6601
Lower = better calibrated
Resolution (RES)
0.0000
Higher = stronger opinions
Brier Skill Score
-164.3%
vs naive baseline
Log Loss
2.0946
Skill: -26389.2% vs naive — sensitive to rare events
Signals
✓ Well-diversified: 142 unique markets
✓ On-chain: human-like trading patterns
✓ On-chain: diverse counterparty network
⚠ Weak Brier score: 0.6607
⚠ Overconfidence bias: 0.731
⚠ Brier Skill Score: -164.3% — performing worse than naive baseline
⚠ Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions
⚠ Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected
⚠ Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address
⚠ Net loss: -$25555 total PnL
⚠ Low win rate: 0%
⚠ Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market
⚠ PnL divergence: $28382 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows
On-Chain Verification (Polygon)
Protocols: USDC.e (Bridged)
PnL divergence: $28381.94 gap between API and on-chain USDC
✓ Heavy on-chain activity: 2995 txs
✓ Significant USDC flow: $12,686
✓ Human-like transaction patterns
✓ Diverse trading network: 30 counterparties
⚠ Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction
Reasoning
On-chain verification: wallet age 56 days, 2995 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $5,727 in / $0 out across 67 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-06.
3100 total trades across 142 markets.
148 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 73.1% — needs improvement.
Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 37/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -164.3% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.6601 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 2.0946 (skill: -26389.2% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
What Does F/32 Mean?
No demonstrated forecasting skill. This trader performs at or below random chance based on available data.
Confidence: F/32 [CI95: F→D, 29-35] (148 resolved bets). Moderate confidence — score may shift as more markets resolve.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.