When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 1 | 1% | 0% | 1.0% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 6 | 14% | 0% | 13.8% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 8 | 27% | 0% | 26.6% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 16 | 35% | 0% | 35.5% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 34 | 46% | 0% | 46.0% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 36 | 55% | 0% | 55.4% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 49 | 65% | 0% | 65.2% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 44 | 74% | 0% | 74.3% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 32 | 85% | 0% | 84.9% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 16 | 94% | 0% | 94.2% |
On-chain verification: wallet age 3 days, 2038 txs, provenance grade D. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 80/100.
1417 total trades across 264 markets.
242 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 62.5% — needs improvement.
Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 16/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -71.1% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.4271 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 1.1596 (skill: -14564.7% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
Timeliness: avg entry 1.9 days before resolution, 0% early mover.
This trader shows some skill signal, but not enough to clearly distinguish from luck. More data needed.
Confidence: C/52 ± 3 (high confidence, 242 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.