When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 1 | 1% | 0% | 1.0% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 6 | 14% | 0% | 13.8% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 8 | 26% | 0% | 25.7% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 14 | 35% | 0% | 35.0% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 28 | 46% | 0% | 45.9% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 41 | 56% | 0% | 55.5% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 46 | 64% | 0% | 64.4% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 47 | 74% | 0% | 74.2% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 30 | 85% | 0% | 85.3% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 15 | 94% | 0% | 94.3% |
On-chain verification: wallet age 3 days, 2038 txs, provenance grade D. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 80/100.
1442 total trades across 265 markets.
236 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 62.6% — needs improvement.
Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 16/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -71.5% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.4281 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 1.1601 (skill: -14571.8% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
Timeliness: avg entry 1.8 days before resolution, 0% early mover.
This trader shows some skill signal, but not enough to clearly distinguish from luck. More data needed.
Confidence: C/52 ± 3 (high confidence, 236 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.