When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 9 | 2% | 44% | 42.7% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 1 | 18% | 0% | 17.8% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 4 | 28% | 75% | 47.3% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 2 | 34% | 50% | 16.0% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 5 | 47% | 80% | 32.9% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 8 | 53% | 63% | 9.2% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 4 | 64% | 25% | 39.3% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 1 | 72% | 100% | 28.4% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 4 | 85% | 75% | 9.6% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 2 | 96% | 100% | 4.3% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 627 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.
1250 total trades across 40 markets.
40 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 27.4% — needs improvement.
Skill: 35/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 100/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -21.1% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.0991 RES=0.0488 UNC=0.2400.
Log loss: 0.9826 (skill: -46.0% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
Timeliness: avg entry 607.1 days before resolution, 100% early mover.
Below average. The data shows poor calibration, thin evidence, or both. When this trader expresses high confidence, events don't happen at the rate they imply.
Confidence: D/41 [CI95: D→D, 36-45] (40 resolved bets). Low confidence — take this score with a grain of salt until more markets resolve.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.