When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 3 | 6% | 0% | 6.0% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 4 | 17% | 0% | 16.6% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 8 | 25% | 0% | 25.5% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 26 | 36% | 0% | 36.2% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 34 | 46% | 0% | 46.2% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 50 | 54% | 0% | 54.0% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 31 | 64% | 0% | 64.5% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 9 | 74% | 0% | 74.1% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 6 | 84% | 0% | 84.1% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 3 | 93% | 0% | 92.7% |
On-chain verification: wallet age 22 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $20,988 in / $0 out across 66 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-02.
3100 total trades across 176 markets.
174 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 51.4% — needs improvement.
Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 25/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -16.5% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.2904 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 0.7961 (skill: -9967.6% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
Timeliness: avg entry 0.5 days before resolution, 0% early mover.
This trader shows some skill signal, but not enough to clearly distinguish from luck. More data needed.
Confidence: C/52 [CI95: C→C, 51-53] (174 resolved bets). Moderate confidence — score may shift as more markets resolve.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.