When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 106 | 4% | 10% | 5.9% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 79 | 15% | 8% | 7.7% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 92 | 25% | 8% | 17.5% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 101 | 35% | 7% | 28.2% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 130 | 44% | 6% | 38.2% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 138 | 55% | 4% | 51.1% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 105 | 65% | 4% | 60.7% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 84 | 75% | 5% | 70.3% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 71 | 85% | 8% | 76.7% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 55 | 95% | 9% | 86.1% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 435 days, 1000 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $5,434 in / $0 out across 29 withdrawal tx since 2025-07-09.
5000 total trades across 992 markets.
961 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 41.8% — needs improvement.
Skill: 10/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 31/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -390.9% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.2387 RES=0.0005 UNC=0.0613.
Log loss: 0.8803 (skill: -263.8% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
Timeliness: avg entry 1.0 days before resolution, 0% early mover.
Below average. The data shows poor calibration, thin evidence, or both. When this trader expresses high confidence, events don't happen at the rate they imply.
Confidence: D/39 [CI95: D→D, 38-40] (961 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.