VIGIL: dolita scored C/51

dolita

0x218f36c313d6c012636b21cc6b5a043d9fef17bc

Polymarket Trader

DEVELOPING

Mixed signals. More data needed.

C

51 / 100

VIGIL Dimensions

Calibration

39

Profitability

41

Consistency

89

Discipline

85

Sample Size

60

Live Edge

49

Raw Metrics

Total PnL

$30.74

Win Rate

0%

Resolved Bets

40

Total Trades

3100

Volume

$7802

Markets

39

Brier Score

0.2341

Open Positions

4

Brier Skill

6.4%

Log Loss

0.662

Calibration Analysis

When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.

Bucket	Bets	Expected	Actual	Error
0.30-0.40	1	31%	0%	31.4%
0.40-0.50	30	46%	0%	46.5%
0.50-0.60	7	52%	0%	51.7%
0.60-0.70	2	67%	0%	66.8%

Calibration Error: 48.0%

Reliability (CAL)

0.2337

Lower = better calibrated

Resolution (RES)

0.0000

Higher = stronger opinions

Brier Skill Score

6.4%

vs naive baseline

Log Loss

0.6617

Skill: -8267.9% vs naive — sensitive to rare events

Skill & Variance Analysis

Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).

2

Skill Score

11

Variance

Signals

✓ Net profitable: +$31 total PnL

✓ Well-diversified: 39 unique markets

✓ On-chain: human-like trading patterns

✓ On-chain: $10,120 total USDC.e received from Polymarket contracts across 59 tx (Polygon)

⚠ Overconfidence bias: 0.480

⚠ Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions

⚠ Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected

⚠ Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address

⚠ Low win rate: 0%

⚠ On-chain: wallet only 6 days old on Polygon

⚠ PnL divergence: $1980 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows

On-Chain Verification (Polygon)

Wallet Age

6d

Txns on Base

2989

Counterparties

9

USDC In

$12117

USDC Out

$10106

Provenance

C (48)

Protocols: USDC.e (Bridged)

PnL divergence: $1980.48 gap between API and on-chain USDC

✓ Heavy on-chain activity: 2989 txs

✓ Significant USDC flow: $22,223

✓ Human-like transaction patterns

⚠ Very new wallet: 6 days old — possible sybil

⚠ Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction

⚠ Counterparty concentration: 99% with top address

Reasoning

On-chain verification: wallet age 6 days, 2989 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 50/100.

Polymarket on-chain coverage: $10,120 in / $0 out across 59 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-14.

3100 total trades across 39 markets.

40 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.

Calibration error: 48.0% — needs improvement.

Skill: 2/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 11/100 (higher = more volatile returns).

Brier Skill Score: 6.4% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).

Brier decomposition: REL=0.2337 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.

Log loss: 0.6617 (skill: -8267.9% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.

What Does C/51 Mean?

This trader shows some skill signal, but not enough to clearly distinguish from luck. More data needed.

Confidence: C/51 ± 15 (low confidence, 40 resolved bets). Low confidence — take this score with a grain of salt until more markets resolve.

Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.

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