When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 420 | 5% | 0% | 4.2% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 172 | 14% | 0% | 14.3% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 76 | 24% | 0% | 24.2% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 60 | 35% | 0% | 34.9% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 34 | 44% | 0% | 43.9% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 22 | 53% | 0% | 52.8% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 58 | 65% | 0% | 64.8% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 38 | 75% | 0% | 74.8% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 32 | 85% | 0% | 85.3% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 52 | 95% | 0% | 94.8% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 110 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $177 in / $0 out across 2 withdrawal tx since 2026-03-18.
3100 total trades across 256 markets.
964 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 26.0% — needs improvement.
Skill: 29/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 60/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -7262.8% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.1498 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0021.
Log loss: 0.4930 (skill: -3211.0% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
This trader shows some skill signal, but not enough to clearly distinguish from luck. More data needed.
Confidence: C/53 [CI95: C→C, 52-54] (964 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.