When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 1 | 2% | 0% | 1.8% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 1 | 17% | 0% | 17.5% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 1 | 24% | 0% | 24.3% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 2 | 37% | 0% | 36.8% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 3 | 45% | 0% | 45.3% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 3 | 55% | 0% | 54.9% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 5 | 64% | 0% | 64.3% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 4 | 77% | 0% | 76.6% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 5 | 87% | 0% | 86.5% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 4 | 95% | 0% | 94.9% |
On-chain verification: wallet age 3 days, 2038 txs, provenance grade D. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 80/100.
1379 total trades across 261 markets.
29 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 64.1% — needs improvement.
Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 18/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -88.4% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.4705 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 1.3557 (skill: -17044.9% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
Timeliness: avg entry 2.6 days before resolution, 0% early mover.
No demonstrated forecasting skill. This trader performs at or below random chance based on available data.
Confidence: F/33 ± 15 (low confidence, 29 resolved bets). Low confidence — take this score with a grain of salt until more markets resolve.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.