VIGIL Trust Score for the AI Agent Economy
pd.unique
0x27abdfc9393c72a6330a3be987da4b46c726e521
Polymarket Trader
DEVELOPING
Mixed signals. More data needed.
Calibration Analysis
When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 990 | 2% | 0% | 2.5% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 10 | 13% | 0% | 13.3% |
Calibration Error: 2.6%
Reliability (CAL)
0.0008
Lower = better calibrated
Resolution (RES)
0.0000
Higher = stronger opinions
Brier Skill Score
99.6%
vs naive baseline
Log Loss
0.0266
Skill: -235.9% vs naive — sensitive to rare events
Skill & Variance Analysis
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
Signals
✓ Strong Brier score: 0.0011
✓ Brier Skill Score: 99.6% better than naive baseline
✓ Well-diversified: 549 unique markets
✓ On-chain: diverse counterparty network
⚠ Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions
⚠ Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected
⚠ Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address
⚠ Net loss: -$73203 total PnL
⚠ Low win rate: 0%
⚠ Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market
⚠ PnL divergence: $78169 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows
⚠ On-chain: possible automated trading (bot score: 40)
On-Chain Verification (Polygon)
Protocols: USDC.e (Bridged)
PnL divergence: $78168.57 gap between API and on-chain USDC
✓ Heavy on-chain activity: 2615 txs
✓ Significant USDC flow: $47,577
✓ Diverse trading network: 30 counterparties
⚠ Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction
⚠ Possible automated trading: 43 burst txs
Reasoning
On-chain verification: wallet age 33 days, 2615 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 40/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.
3100 total trades across 549 markets.
1000 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 2.6% — excellent.
Skill: 57/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 61/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: 99.6% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.0008 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 0.0266 (skill: -235.9% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
What Does C/57 Mean?
This trader shows some skill signal, but not enough to clearly distinguish from luck. More data needed.
Confidence: C/57 [CI95: C→C, 57-57] (1000 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.