VIGIL Trust Score for the AI Agent Economy
herbiez
0x2888a13d8903c82acbbfe970e83d923a57d467aa
Polymarket Trader
DEVELOPING
Mixed signals. More data needed.
Calibration Analysis
When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|
| 0.10-0.20 | 5 | 14% | 0% | 14.3% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 3 | 27% | 0% | 26.9% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 6 | 35% | 0% | 34.6% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 14 | 46% | 0% | 46.3% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 12 | 56% | 0% | 55.5% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 24 | 65% | 0% | 64.6% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 27 | 74% | 0% | 74.2% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 14 | 85% | 0% | 85.4% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 6 | 93% | 0% | 93.0% |
Calibration Error: 62.9%
Reliability (CAL)
0.4327
Lower = better calibrated
Resolution (RES)
0.0000
Higher = stronger opinions
Brier Skill Score
-73.4%
vs naive baseline
Log Loss
1.1530
Skill: -14481.3% vs naive — sensitive to rare events
Timeliness
2/100
Avg 2d before resolution, 0% early mover
Signals
✓ Well-diversified: 266 unique markets
✓ On-chain: human-like trading patterns
⚠ Weak Brier score: 0.4335
⚠ Overconfidence bias: 0.629
⚠ Brier Skill Score: -73.4% — performing worse than naive baseline
⚠ Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions
⚠ Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected
⚠ Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address
⚠ Low win rate: 0%
⚠ On-chain: wallet only 3 days old on Polygon
⚠ On-chain: wash trading signal — 95% of txs with single counterparty
On-Chain Verification (Polygon)
Protocols: USDC.e (Bridged)
PnL verified: $607.59 gap between API and on-chain USDC
✓ Heavy on-chain activity: 2039 txs
✓ Significant USDC flow: $10,588
✓ Human-like transaction patterns
⚠ Very new wallet: 3 days old — possible sybil
⚠ Limited counterparties: only 2 unique addresses
⚠ Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction
⚠ Wash trading signal: 95% of txs with single counterparty
Reasoning
On-chain verification: wallet age 3 days, 2039 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 80/100.
1531 total trades across 266 markets.
111 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 62.9% — needs improvement.
Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 17/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -73.4% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.4327 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 1.1530 (skill: -14481.3% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
Timeliness: avg entry 2.2 days before resolution, 0% early mover.
What Does C/51 Mean?
This trader shows some skill signal, but not enough to clearly distinguish from luck. More data needed.
Confidence: C/51 ± 8 (medium confidence, 111 resolved bets). Moderate confidence — score may shift as more markets resolve.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.